If Cocoa Fails and Gold Drops, Ghana Could Be in Serious Trouble – Joe Jackson—-Ghana’s economic stability could be at risk, with fears that a decline in its two key exports, cocoa and gold, could push the country into deeper financial trouble. As the world’s second-largest producer of cocoa, Ghana has seen its cocoa sector struggle with low yields, climate change effects, and financial constraints, while gold remains the backbone of the country’s foreign exchange reserves. If either of these pillars weakens, the consequences could be severe.
These concerns come in the wake of the 2025 Budget Statement, delivered by Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson on March 11, 2025. The budget outlined ambitious revenue targets and policies to stabilize the economy. However, economic analysts, including Joe Jackson, CEO of Dalex Finance, believe the government‘s plans are built on risky assumptions that could collapse under external pressure.
Speaking on The Big Issues on Channel One TV on March 15, 2025, Jackson warned about the fragility of Ghana’s economic outlook, stressing that any external shock could trigger a major crisis.
“Any external shock and we are down. If the cedi dives, we are in trouble. If we cannot revive the cocoa sector, we are in trouble, and if the gold, which has held us up, doesn’t hold up, we are in trouble.”
He pointed out that Ghana’s economy is currently based on big bets, with the government relying on revenue growth, currency stability, and strong performance in cocoa and gold exports. While the optimism in the budget is evident, Jackson cautioned that these assumptions might not hold if unforeseen economic shocks occur.
“Given where we are with the economy, the IMF programme, and as a nation, I think this was an essential budget. It was a good enough budget. Have they taken some really big bets? Yes, some bets have been taken.”
Jackson also highlighted some of the government’s revenue measures, such as a revised tax refund regime, but questioned whether they would be enough to meet expectations.
He emphasized that while the policies in place are aimed at economic recovery, they remain uncertain bets that could either work in Ghana’s favor or lead to greater financial difficulties should there be any external shock.
Last Updated on March 31, 2025 by Senel Media
